Social Media and the Republican Primaries: To know you is not to love you

I was intrigued by the recent Ad Age article which looked at the correlation between social media and primary results and concluded that social media was not predictive (yet). So I decided to do some research on my own.

First things first, I was struck by the huge difference in social media between President Obama and the current four Republican candidates.

Mitt Romney tops the Facebook “likes” scale at 909,600. President Obama has 25 million.

Newt Gingrich tops the Twitter followers scale at 1,500,000. President Obama has 13,000,000

So, right off the bat, if social media is a good sign of election results, these guys are fried.

The four candidates, together, have 2,885,000 “likes” to President Obama’s 25,600,000 and 2,449,000 Twitter followers to President Obama’s 13,000.

However, the four candidates, together, have put out 7,340 Tweets to the President’s 3,130. So, could there be a mathematical correlation there?

I looked at the number of states currently having held primaries but excluded four huge economies: American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Guam and the Northern Marianas Island. With those important economies out of the way, Romney has 15 victories (58% of the total), Santorum has 9 (or 35%) and the rest have 2 (or almost 8%)

So, Facebook v Wins... nothing there:

There’s just no rhyme or reason between the percentage of wins for each candidate and their Facebook “likes”. Ron Paul has almost 1 million “likes” and 0 wins; Santorum has almost no “likes” (179,800) but is the second largest winner.

So I looked at Twitter

Gingrich –a well know firebrand—has the most Twitter followers at 1.5 million while winners Romney and Santorum have only 377,800 and 166,500 followers respectively. So, excluding Ron Paul, there seems to be a perverse reverse correlation.

And when we look at the number of tweets, the relationship becomes a bit clearer:

When looking a the number of Tweets, we find the same perverse relationship: excluding Ron Paul, the more candidates “twitted” the less states they won.

So, evidently, the more they Tweet and the more we know about these candidates... the less likely we are to vote for them.

As a reminder... the four Republican candidates together have issued 7,342 Tweets... President Obama has only issued 3,130, well under 50%.

So, can social media predict an election? Perhaps, in a perverse kind of way... it might.

Real Branding vs Really? Branding?

I've got to confess: the first ever real ad I remember... and one of the seminal ads in getting me into advertising, was from the 70's and showed a beautiful apple with an Alfa Romeo key inserted in it and the keychain with the Alfa logo dangling. Needlessly, it said: Temptation.

That ad got me hooked into advertising and communications. It was incredible how a brand could both, tell you what it was all about AND entice you with such an economy of words and a powerful image.

A second classic ad that impacted me was this one:

That's right. The mythical "commendatore" Enzo Ferrari drives a Fiat. Of course, he doesn't drive the Fiat shown... or any other "Fiat-branded" car. But, in 1970, when Fiat bought Ferrari, it was huge news and this single ad changed the entire perception of Fiat among thousands of car enthusiasts likey myself. After all, how can Fiat not learn and improve from Ferrari?

That was real branding.

Fast forward to today and we now see that the makers of this beauty:

A Pininfarina-designed Maserati GT --which by the way, has a 400+ HP Ferrari engine-- had the bright idea of coming up with this:

Which brings three questions to mind:

1. If I just spend $130,000 in a GT... do I really want my neighbor to have a $35,000 version made by Chrysler?
2. Is the U.S. ready to spend $35,000+ in a car with a 1.4 liter, 4 Cylinder engine that puts out 160 HP? I mean, even a Mini Cooper S has 180 HP.
3. Why would Maserati even do this? Why put yourself in a position where a Mini or a Honda Civic can beat a Maserati from 0-60 or, more probably, from one stop light to the next? What were they thinking?

Now... Maserati has a long history of doing weird alliances. These alliances have gone from the sublime to the ridiculous.

In the 70's, this car was a sublime example of a great alliance:

The car was a Citroen SM and had a Maserati engine and enough advanced engineering to shame a modern car designer: speed sensitive power steering, headlights that turned with the steering, 6 speakers... it was expensive, fast, luxurious and did wonders to bolster both, Citroen's and Maserati's reputations.

Then came this doozy:

A Chrysler TC... a thinly-disguised K-Car, the laughing stock that saved Chrysler the first time and the platform that helped cement the brand the ultimate purveyors of Mini Vans and other castrating vehicles.

After that car, no one, but no one, bought a Maserati in the U.S. The brand just basically vanished.

The car was under-powered, ugly, full of design miscues.

And, now, in a stroke of genius, Maserati is going to destroy its image again.

Certainly brings new meaning to the old phrase regarding those who ignore history...

Short Hiatus - New Agency is Born

Back after a short hiatus.

On Dec. 31st the agency where I used to work closed its offices after losing its largest client and was reborn as a media rep firm

After a short vacation, Carlos Montaño, the creative director and one with whom I've worked at 3 different agencies in Miami and New Yori, and I, decided to take the plunge and form a new venture: Montano + Salup Communications.

So that's our new logo, a gift from talented designer Carolina Angel (http://www.lovetob.com/) and here's our new website: www.montanosalup.com


Goes without saying that we will deeply appreciate referrals. My new business email is msalup@montanosalup.com